Publications
Policy briefs, situation notes (4-6 pp., fortnightly), reports (30-80 pp., twice yearly) and academic working papers — the Cahiers du Tibesti collection, open access.
The Saharan quadrangle on the edge of rupture
The security architecture of central Africa has given way. Sudan's war is no longer contained within its borders: it now supplies four states at once with weapons, fighters and predatory economies, while the international response is funded at 16% of what it asks for.
What we observe
- Darfur has become a hub, not a front. The corridor supplies weapons and fighters to theatres more than a thousand kilometres away, from the Libyan Fezzan to Vakaga in the Central African Republic.
- Bilateral border arrangements have failed. Drone strikes on Tiné, the occupation of Am-Dafock by the Alliance du sursaut patriotique and the attack on Erendeguè showed as much within a few weeks.
- The war economy has replaced the fiscal economy. Gold in Chad and Sudan, diamonds in CAR since the Kimberley embargo was lifted in November 2024, oil as leverage in Libya.
- Outside interference is stacking up. The Russian Africa Corps, Ukrainian support, Emirati funding: external conflicts are being replayed on Saharan ground.
- Famine is setting in. Entire areas of Sudan and eastern Chad are classified at IPC phase 4, some at phase 5.
What we recommend
States in the region
Replace community militias with professional border guards and maintain strict neutrality towards foreign belligerents.
Financial institutions (World Bank, IMF)
Support national budgets, Chad's first, conditional on anti-corruption measures and the economic integration of refugees.
United Nations and NGOs
Focus advocacy on IPC phase 4 and 5 areas, and strengthen civilian protection and the prevention of gender-based violence.
Donor countries and the European Union
Extend targeted sanctions to transnational smuggling networks and block conflict gold on trading hubs, Dubai first among them.